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Where: Kärret, Ecology Building, Sölvegatan 37 When: Monday February 29th, 17—19 Drop in Bring a laptop with R and JAGS installed (or do it there) Bayesian modelling in JAGS An initative by Pufendorf Advanced Study Group on Calculating and Communicating Uncertainty Bayesian Analysis for curious learners Tutorial and discussion led by Ullrika Sahlin (CEC) Further info: Ullrika.Sahlin@cec.lu.se

https://evidence.blogg.lu.se/files/2016/02/Bayestutorial29feb.pdf - 2025-01-19

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December 2016 The Society for Risk Analysis SRA Europe Nordic Chapter Second Annual Meeting: Where are we and where are we going? Randa Kachef, SRA News Editor All photos by Randa Kachef Risk practitioners and academics from around the Nordic-Baltic region met in Gothenburg from November 14-15 for the Second Annual Meeting of the SRA Europe Nordic Chapter. At the meeting, participants experienced

https://evidence.blogg.lu.se/files/2016/11/Nordic_SRA_Meeting_gbg2016.pdf - 2025-01-19

Likaantuneita lintuja ja kadonneita katkoja – öljyonnettomuuden vaikutukset meriluontoon

Likaantuneita lintuja ja kadonneita katkoja – öljyonnettomuuden vaikutukset meriluontoon Sakari Kuikka & Fem group Head of Fisheries and Environmental Management group (FEM), Department of Environmental Sciences, University of Helsinki, Finland, Email: sakari.kuikka@helsinki.fi Learning chains in oil spill risk analysis Lund University 29.3.2017 http://www.helsinki.fi/university/ http://www.helsin

https://evidence.blogg.lu.se/files/2017/02/BN-Workshop-Sakari-Kuikka.pdf - 2025-01-19

Small data and conflicting information

Small data and conflicting information What is needed to get Bayesian Networks robust to weaknesses in knowledge? Ullrika Sahlin, Centre of Environmental and Climate Research Lund University, Sweden Ullrika.Sahlin@cec.lu.se http://www.cec.lu.se/ullrika-sahlin mailto:Ullrika.Sahlin@cec.lu.se http://www.cec.lu.se/ullrika-sahlin Abstract Also the sun has its spots. Bayesian Networks are useful, but h

https://evidence.blogg.lu.se/files/2017/02/BN-Workshop-Ullrika-Sahlin-1.pdf - 2025-01-19

BNs, adaptive managment2

BNs, adaptive managment2 Bayesian  tools  to  meet  the  challenges  of   uncertainty,  climate  change  and  integrating   molecular  toxicology  to  population   management Wayne  G.  Landis Institute  of  Environmental  Toxicology,  Huxley  College  of  the  Environment Western  Washington  University,  Bellingham,  Washington  USA Looking  ahead-­‐ Introduction  to  the  use  of  Bayesian  net

https://evidence.blogg.lu.se/files/2017/02/BN-Workshop-Wayne-Landis.pdf - 2025-01-19

Lund kickoff-2

Lund kickoff-2 Wayne  G.  Landis Institute  of  Environmental  Toxicology,  Western  Washington  University Bellingham,  Washington Introduction  to  ecological  risk  assessment,  the  use   of  Bayesian  networks  and  the  analysis  of   uncertainty How  about  a  story? • I  has  been  a  twenty-­‐one  year  journey  to  get  to   this  point  in  the  development  of  regional  risk   assessm

https://evidence.blogg.lu.se/files/2017/02/BN_lecture_kickoff_Landis.pdf - 2025-01-19

Small data and conflicting information

Small data and conflicting information Bayesian Networks Decision analysis Ullrika Sahlin, Centre of Environmental and Climate Research Lund University, Sweden Ullrika.Sahlin@cec.lu.se http://www.cec.lu.se/ullrika-sahlin mailto:Ullrika.Sahlin@cec.lu.se http://www.cec.lu.se/ullrika-sahlin Recipe of a decision • Agents – decision makers • Their values • Decision alternatives • An idea of what is a g

https://evidence.blogg.lu.se/files/2017/02/BN_lecture_part2_sahlin.pdf - 2025-01-19

Small data and conflicting information

Small data and conflicting information Using expert's knowledge in Bayesian analysis Ullrika Sahlin, Centre of Environmental and Climate Research Lund University, Sweden Ullrika.Sahlin@cec.lu.se http://www.cec.lu.se/ullrika-sahlin mailto:Ullrika.Sahlin@cec.lu.se http://www.cec.lu.se/ullrika-sahlin Theory Data EK Theory Data EK Theory Data EK T Data EK European Food Safety Agency (EFSA) Plant Healt

https://evidence.blogg.lu.se/files/2017/03/Sahlin_BayesatLund2017_toweb.pdf - 2025-01-19

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A mini-conference in Bayesian analysis at Lund University Room MA7, in the Maths annex building, Sölvegatan 20, Lund 20 April 2017 http://maths.lu.se/bayeslund2017 Sponsored by BECC and COMPUTE http://www.becc.lu.se/ http://cbbp.thep.lu.se/compute/ http://maths.lu.se/bayeslund2017 http://www.becc.lu.se/ http://cbbp.thep.lu.se/compute http://www.becc.lu.se/ http://cbbp.thep.lu.se/compute/ Program,

https://evidence.blogg.lu.se/files/2017/03/programus.pdf - 2025-01-19

Small data and conflicting information

Small data and conflicting information The importance of considering extreme and rare events in environmental management Ullrika Sahlin, Centre of Environmental and Climate Research Lund University, Sweden Ullrika.Sahlin@cec.lu.se http://www.cec.lu.se/ullrika-sahlin mailto:Ullrika.Sahlin@cec.lu.se http://www.cec.lu.se/ullrika-sahlin Now Train departs Time Now Train departs Time I leave the office

https://evidence.blogg.lu.se/files/2017/05/Sahlin_docent_final.pdf - 2025-01-19

PowerPoint-presentation

PowerPoint-presentation KORTKURS FRAMTIDSVECKAN 2019 SAHLIN OCH KNAGGÅRD Och en osäker framtid är vår Hur troligt är det att det regnar på fredag? 1. Hur stor är chansen att det händer? ____ % 2. Föreställ dig att du har ”testat det regnar” i flera försök – hur många gånger har du testat för att komma upp till det du nyss svarade? Regn på fredag (%) 0 25 50 75 100 KORTKURS FRAMTIDSVECKAN 2019 SAHL

https://evidence.blogg.lu.se/files/2019/09/Och-en-os%C3%A4ker-framtid-%C3%A4r-v%C3%A5r-Sahlin-Knagg%C3%A5rd.pdf - 2025-01-19

Guess your time in Lundaloppet Predictive Challenge 2019 – Environmental Evidence Synthesis

Guess your time in Lundaloppet Predictive Challenge 2019 – Environmental Evidence Synthesis Skip to content Search Search Close Menu Environmental Evidence Synthesis Guess your time in Lundaloppet Predictive Challenge 2019 Länk till denna sida på svenska We are curious to know how good people are in being uncertain. To test this, we asked participants of the running race Lundaloppet (Lund May 4th

https://evidence.blogg.lu.se/lundaloppet-predictive-challenge-2019-eng/ - 2025-01-19

Finns det någon nytta med att vara osäker – Environmental Evidence Synthesis

Finns det någon nytta med att vara osäker – Environmental Evidence Synthesis Skip to content Search Search Close Menu Environmental Evidence Synthesis Finns det någon nytta med att vara osäker Detta är en fråga som jag ställde på Dalby bibliotek som en del i Lunds universitets forskarturné hösten 2018 . De drygt 20 åskådarna fick utstå att gissa, uttrycka deras osäkerhet och testa huruvida de har

https://evidence.blogg.lu.se/osakerhet/ - 2025-01-19

Which theory gets the highest probability to be the true one? – Environmental Evidence Synthesis

Which theory gets the highest probability to be the true one? – Environmental Evidence Synthesis Skip to content Search Search Close Menu Environmental Evidence Synthesis Which theory gets the highest probability to be the true one? September 30, 2019 host This entry was posted in Write a comment Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked * Comment Name * Email * Website

https://evidence.blogg.lu.se/osakerhetsexperiment-pa-forskarfredag/spring/ - 2025-01-19

Experts judgements – Environmental Evidence Synthesis

Experts judgements – Environmental Evidence Synthesis Skip to content Search Search Close Menu Environmental Evidence Synthesis Experts judgements October 13, 2018 host This entry was posted in Write a comment Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked * Comment Name * Email * Website Menu Close about this blog Accessibility statement Follow us

https://evidence.blogg.lu.se/qup/brett/ - 2025-01-19

Results from Lundaloppet Predictive Challenge 2014 – Environmental Evidence Synthesis

Results from Lundaloppet Predictive Challenge 2014 – Environmental Evidence Synthesis Skip to content Search Search Close Menu Environmental Evidence Synthesis Results from Lundaloppet Predictive Challenge 2014 What does it mean to make predictions? Why is it advantageous, if not mandatory, to make predictions in terms of probability distributions? Is a prediction with a wide distribution automati

https://evidence.blogg.lu.se/results-from-lundaloppet-predictive-challenge-2014/ - 2025-01-19

Two aspects on reliability – epistemic risk and safety – Environmental Evidence Synthesis

Two aspects on reliability – epistemic risk and safety – Environmental Evidence Synthesis Skip to content Search Search Close Menu Environmental Evidence Synthesis Two aspects on reliability – epistemic risk and safety Last week was devoted to reliability in two aspects. Niklas Vareman successfully defended his thesis on Epistemic Risk, which in one of his explanations of it is the risk of “missin

https://evidence.blogg.lu.se/two-aspects-on-reliability-epistemic-risk-and-safety/ - 2025-01-19

Working from home – Environmental Evidence Synthesis

Working from home – Environmental Evidence Synthesis Skip to content Search Search Close Menu Environmental Evidence Synthesis Working from home We are approaching the time of the year to writing applications for the Swedish research councils VR and FORMAS. We all have our tricks to get the opportunity to focus and bring those ideas on a piece of paper (literary). Today I skip commuting and I work

https://evidence.blogg.lu.se/working-from-home/ - 2025-01-19

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Forum Medicums process-20150526 2015-06-01 1 Forum Medicums process - bakgrund, process, synpunkter på konceptkatalogen och synpunkter på placering av delar av verksamheten Den ursprungliga tanken bakom Projektet Forum Medicum föddes i samband med en översyn av lokalerna för Health Science Center (HSC) på Baravägen i Lund. Dessa bedömdes inte motsvara dagens krav på arbetsmiljö och i sin nuvarande

https://forummedicum.blogg.lu.se/files/2015/06/Forum-Medicums-process-20150526.pdf - 2025-01-19