Hur sannolikt är ”sannolikt”? - Ett kvasi-experiment om kognitiva bias i underrättelsetjänsten
Studies on cognitive psychology have shown that estimates of probability are influenced by the way in which semantic and numeric information is presented to us – so called framing bias. Further, studies on intelligence populations have indicated that bias is present in the analytic work. The aim of this study was to explore how framing bias can manifest in estimates of probability in intelligenc